The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Thursday, October 2, 2025

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

 December Lean Hogs (Daily) 

Today, December Lean Hogs settled at 86.675, down 0.225 on the day.  Prices did spike down and test the 50-day moving average (green, 85.842) before rallying to close very near the high of the day.  This marks 4 consecutive down days, which equals the longest bearish streak the December contract has seen.  The last two instances like that were all the way to the left of this chart (there was a 4^th down day before the 3 that are visible) and in the middle of July.  Both of those sell-offs were relatively aggressive and both were stopped by bars that look very similar to today’s, to my eye.  We’ll have stay tuned to see if this one holds as a low point, as well.  The previous ones happened at very different price support levels.  With the first, in April, prices were well below the long-term moving averages when they found support.  With the second, in July, prices were testing the 100-day moving average and bounced from there.  This time, prices are bouncing off of the 50-day average.  Short-term moving averages on the chart, the 5- and 10-day (blue/red, 88.740 and 88.755, respectively) crossed into bearish configuration today.  Normally, I would view that as a “sell” signal, but this market does tend to get a bit “whipsaw-ish” and at this moment, I’ll ignore it unless/until today’s low is broken.  The 50-day (green, 84.841) offered support today, the 100-day (grey, 84.235) is below current levels, but still may be in play, in my opinion.  The 200-day (purple, 79.744) is well below current prices and I don’t think that’s currently at risk. 

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long futures positions at this time.  I would see that risk on that trade to be under today’s low, near the 85.500 level.  From today’s close that would be a risk of 1.175, or $470 before your commissions/fees.  Adjust your own risk tolerances accordingly depending on your account size and your entry point.  A profit target near 92.000 (would be new contract highs) works out to a potential profit of $2,130, before your commissions/fees, again from today’s closing price. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

 December Lean Hogs (Weekly)

As of Thursday’s close, December Lean Hogs are down 4.375 on the week.  There’s still Friday’s trade to look forward to, but as of this writing this would mark the worst weekly performance over the life of this contract.  If there’s no significant rally tomorrow, this would also post a Bearish Engulfment on the weekly chart.  That would be twice in the last 4 weeks, as the smaller red bar 2 weeks ago was also a bearish engulfment.  That one was “negated” by the strong bullish trade last week on the push to contract highs.  Only time will tell if this one is reversed by price activity, as well.  Stochastics have started to hook lower, out of overbought status.  There’s only been one short period at the end of March where this contract was oversold and it has been content to be overbought for most of the December contract’s life.  The 5- and 10-week moving averages (blue and red, 88.460 and 86.323, respectively) are still in a bullish configuration and have been since the last week in August.  We are trading below the 5-week, which is not particularly bullish, and have tested the 10-week and bounced, which could be a sign of bullish support.  The 50-week average (green, 78.708) is well below the current price, and not currently in play, to my eye. 

Barchart’s Seasonal data, which you can find here, seems to show that Hog prices have been firmer in the month of October in 9 out of the past 15 years, not counting 2025. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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